Watching the Way Political Winds Blow—“The Sunday Political Brunch” December 18, 2022

Sunday, December 18, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

It was a type of weeks within the political world the place there was not a standard theme or thread. Every kind of unconnected issues had been occurring. It was form of a political Smorgasbord. Let’s “brunch” on that this week!

“You No Love Me No Extra?” – A USA As we speak/Suffolk College Ballot out this week was jaw-dropping. Nearly all of the nation doesn’t need Donald Trump to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. And a CNN ballot says 62 % of Republicans don’t need Trump to be the nominee, and 59 % of Democrats don’t need Joe Biden again.  I’ve coated each presidential marketing campaign since Carter-Reagan-Anderson in 1980 and have by no means seen something like this earlier than. Many citizens view each males as too previous, and too out of contact with the mainstream of their respective events.

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“So, Who’s Subsequent?” – The alternate options are extra clear-cut within the Republican celebration proper now, in comparison with the Democrats. In response to the Suffolk Ballot, 56 % of Republicans and conservative independents desire Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida, to 33 % for Trump. That’s telling. The Democrats are way more scattered and maybe unfocused on a Biden different. 5 % most popular Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, whereas 4 % picked Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) California, with 4 % additionally for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) Vermont. Three % selected Vice President Kamala Harris. People, which means solely 16 % of a divided Democrat Celebration have made a selection past Biden. Wow, however once more, it’s early!

“The Impression of a Crowded Subject” – On the GOP facet, my guess is that this won’t be strictly a Trump-DeSantis contest. I feel former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will get in, in addition to former Vice President Mike Pence. One-time U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, will get in, too. Former Gov. John Kasich (R) Ohio will provide himself as a extra average possibility, with fiscal experience. Ex-Gov. Jeb Bush (R) Florida would like to be a spoiler. And I don’t assume you possibly can ever write off Sen. Ted Cruz (R) Texas. That’s eight candidates I’ve named. Do you notice in an eight-person area, all issues being pretty shut, an individual can with the nomination with simply 12.6 % of the vote. Actually! Do the mathematics, (and present your work).

“Dicing up the Democrats” – I can’t think about eight candidates within the Democrat primaries until Biden chooses to not search a second time period. Then, all bets are off, and you might have an equally crowded area. The massive image is that this: if it does come right down to a Biden-Trump rematch, the Suffolk Ballot says 47.3 % of respondents select Biden and 40 % select Trump. So, neither has a clear-cut majority or path to victory and it as soon as once more will come right down to the impartial voters. I predicted on this column months in the past that neither Trump nor Biden will probably be on the November 2024 poll. Only a intestine feeling on my half.

“Identical-Intercourse Marriage” – There was different important political information in Washington, DC this week. On Tuesday, President Biden signed the Respect for Marriage Act into legislation. It codifies a 2015 U.S. Supreme Courtroom resolution that dominated same-sex marriages had been authorized. After all, as we noticed this yr within the excessive court docket’s overturn of Roe v. Wade that legalized abortion, Supreme Courtroom choices could be modified. With Congress and the president codifying same-gender unions into legislation, the Supreme Courtroom can be laborious pressed to overturn that. Andrew Schneider, with the LGBTQ rights group Equity West Virginia was on the White Home invoice signing and stated,
“I am extraordinarily enthusiastic about it and I am extraordinarily honored to be invited to this historic occasion… which allowed for marriage equality on this nation.”

“January sixth Committee” – The Chairman of the Home January sixth Committee, Rep Benny Thompson (D) Mississippi says the ultimate assembly of the committee will probably be this Monday, December 19, with the complete report, together with legal referrals to the Justice Division, on Wednesday, December 21. Numerous experiences point out President Trump, and his lawyer Rudy Giuliani will probably be amongst these really helpful for legal costs. We’ll see. As I’ve identified earlier than, referrals don’t assure indictment so numerous this can be political theatre. Alternatively, with this identical Justice Division contemplating potential legal costs in opposition to presidential son Hunter Biden, all bets are off.

“Retaining the Authorities Funded” – Maintain the Christmas playing cards between the seemingly incoming Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) California and present Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell (R) Kentucky. McConnell signaled a deal to cross an Appropriations Committee invoice this week to maintain the federal government funded. Not so quick, stated McCarthy. He desires the GOP to dig in its heels within the Home and wait till he takes the gavel from Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) California on January third. The 2 leaders have been on opposing sides of payments to cope with a nationwide railroad strike, serving to fund Ukraine battle Russia, the infrastructure invoice, and gun rights. This might get ugly come January.

“Manchin Compassion” – I really like politics, although many disdain it as an impersonal enterprise. Not at all times. This previous week, my eldest sister Tracy sadly died all of a sudden on the age of 67. Tuesday my cellphone rang.  After I answered, all I heard was, “Mark, it’s Joe Manchin. I’m so sorry to listen to about your sister Tracy. If we will do something simply ask.” Three years in the past, he made the identical name when my youngest sister Katie died. Look, he’s a busy, busy U.S. Senator, coping with all of the vital issues talked about above. He doesn’t have to do that, but he does. It was merely a gesture of private kindness.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its 5 neighboring states and the complete Washington, DC media market. He’s additionally a MINDSETTER™ contributing political author and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its associates.

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