Which CIOs Might the Midterms Imperil?

State CIOs are a number of the most influential voices on setting state-level IT coverage. Their voice and imaginative and prescient can sway a state’s standing within the gov tech sector. Because the U.S. approaches the Nov. 8 midterm elections, they need to grapple with the truth that their positions are sometimes tied up with the politics of state, even when the job is nonpartisan.

The place of state CIO is often appointed straight by the governor of a state, that means {that a} governor’s beliefs, politics and community can deeply affect who they choose as head of their state’s IT infrastructure.

Primarily based on knowledge from the previous decade collected by Authorities Know-how, about 12 state CIOs depart their posts annually. On common, 75 % of state CIOs are nonetheless of their jobs after one 12 months.

However when a state will get a brand new governor, that determine considerably drops. Solely 40 % of CIOs “survive” a gubernatorial transition, with that quantity dropping additional to 31 % when the governor’s seat adjustments events.

Whereas a few of these transitions are coincidental, they may also be the results of pointed political fights.

Virginia’s 2022 gubernatorial marketing campaign noticed a political fight surrounding the state’s cybersecurity operation, which was overseen by six-year CIO Nelson Moe on the time. Inside every week of Republican Glenn Youngkin taking on from Democrat Ralph Northam, Moe stepped down and was changed by former Kansas CITO Phil Wittmer. Wittmer would himself depart the publish inside a month of beginning and get replaced by Robert Osmond.

Whereas predicting the way forward for the nation’s politics is inconceivable, we are able to make educated guesses about which states may be dealing with a shift in political management after the midterm elections.

On the prime of the checklist of potential shifts in political energy are Maryland and Massachusetts. Each East Coast states are dealing with a assured change in governor. Regardless of the 2 states at present having Republican governors, the political web site FiveThirtyEight experiences that the Democratic candidates win in additional than 99 % of their simulated elections primarily based on aggregated polling knowledge. The political evaluation agency Cook dinner Political Report offers each races a “Stable Democrat” ranking.

Maryland’s present CIO is Michael Leahy, who has been within the function since March 2017. Leahy can also be previous president of the Nationwide Affiliation of State CIOs. Massachusetts’ present CIO is Curtis Wooden, who has been within the function since January 2019. Each males have been appointed by Republicans.

The final time the governorship switched events in each Maryland and Massachusetts, the state’s CIO was changed inside a 12 months.

Arizona and Oregon even have a assured change in governor, although they could or could not have a change in political occasion. Each FiveThirtyEight and Cook dinner price the 2 races as a “toss up” between the 2 candidates.

Three different states are additionally assured to see a governor change after this election: Arkansas, Hawaii and Nebraska. These states are all unlikely to see a change in occasion management, on condition that FiveThirtyEight and Cook dinner each price the elections as “stable” races with the probably winner being the identical occasion as the present governors.

There are one other 29 elections, although all of them are rated by FiveThirtyEight and CPR to no less than lean towards an incumbent victory. Ten of these 19 races are rated as being “stable” wins for the incumbent.