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When the season started, nobody would’ve thought that the Dallas Cowboys could be highway favorites in opposition to the Green Bay Packers within the NFL Week 10 odds market.
However that’s the place we at the moment are, displaying how a lot fortunes have modified over the previous 9 weeks. The Cowboys are usually not solely favorites however rising ones for Sunday’s nationwide sport on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
What does that say about Dallas’ fortunes this week and for the remainder of the season? Rex Beyers, a longtime oddsmaker and now head of wagering for PlayUp USA, in addition to FOX Bet senior buying and selling operations supervisor Dylan Brossman provided insights on the place the Cowboys at the moment are and the way the remainder of the season would possibly shake down.
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When NFL Week 10 opening odds hit betting boards Sunday night time, the Cowboys had been 3.5-point favorites in opposition to the Packers. Which simply goes to indicate how far Aaron Rodgers — the reigning NFL MVP — and his teammates have fallen.
However early bettors — possible sharp gamers — had been pleased to put the three.5 factors and extra with the Cowboys. By Monday, Dallas was a consensus 5-point favourite, together with at PlayUp, for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. That mentioned, as unhealthy as Inexperienced Bay has been, Beyers feels that is an overreaction by bettors.
“Dallas is painted at -5 as of proper now nearly in every single place. I initially made the sport less expensive, and I do like Inexperienced Bay deal,” Beyers mentioned. “Dallas will not be essentially an awesome crew. The Cowboys rank notches beneath the very best groups and even 1.5 or two factors worse on a impartial subject than San Francisco.
“However Inexperienced Bay has been ravaged by accidents, as unhealthy as anybody apart from perhaps the Chargers. The Packers had been largely getting propped up on the betting window as a result of they’ve acquired essentially the most proficient QB within the historical past of the league.”
Nevertheless, the Packers at the moment are 3-6 straight up (SU) and 3-6 in opposition to the unfold (ATS). Rodgers & Co. are on a surprising five-game SU shedding streak and on a 1-5 ATS slide. So in Beyers’ estimation, the Cowboys now being 5-point favorites — and even 5.5 at some sportsbooks — is much less a product of Dallas (6-2 SU and ATS) being good than of the Packers being completely out of types.
“Rodgers has been able to overcoming many deficiencies together with his offense and training for a very long time,” Beyers mentioned. “On condition that the Brewers received a sport extra not too long ago than the Packers, it’s clearly been a troubling time. However the pendulum has lastly swung an excessive amount of in opposition to them, and there definitely appears to be worth on Inexperienced Bay, from how I see it.”
Line going greater?
Brossman thinks the Cowboys-Packers line will not be performed going up.
“It does really feel bizarre seeing Inexperienced Bay as a 5-point residence underdog, however I’d not be shocked if this strikes extra and goes off nearer to Dallas -6,” Brossman mentioned. “The Packers have confirmed they’ll’t be trusted at residence this 12 months, shedding to the Jets and having misplaced 5 straight total. Conversely, Dallas is rolling offensively and has one of many league’s greatest defenses.
“Final week, the Packers scored a complete of 9 factors in opposition to Detroit’s protection, which ranks thirty first in whole factors given up. Dallas -5 feels just like the protected choose.”
Quick-forward
Can the Cowboys run the desk? To have a look at it from a betting perspective, we requested each Beyers and Brossman to look forward.
Beyers handicapped the remainder of Dallas’ schedule. Over the Cowboys ultimate eight video games, he’d have them favored 5 instances. He’s forecasting no less than three extra losses for the Cowboys, maybe 4.
“Assuming [good] well being for everybody on Dallas and their opponents the remainder of the way in which, I make the Cowboys a small ‘canine subsequent week in Minneapolis,” Beyers mentioned. “Then a stable favourite versus the Giants, Colts and Texans.”
The Cowboys are at residence for all three of these video games.
“Then they’re a small favourite in Jacksonville, near a choose ‘em vs. Philly at residence, and a small ‘canine in Nashville, assuming the Titans QB (Ryan Tannehill) is wholesome,” Beyers mentioned.
Within the regular-season finale at Washington, Beyers mentioned the Cowboys could be stable favorites at this level. However be mindful, Dallas might be resting gamers for the postseason in that Jan. 8 contest.
“I’m pondering 11-6 is the more than likely final result, with 12-5 nonetheless in play, as nicely,” Beyers mentioned. “However quite a lot of issues can occur between now and early January.”
At FOX Wager, Brossman has the Cowboys favored in six of their ultimate eight video games. He makes Dallas a 3-point highway ‘canine at Minnesota in Week 11 and a 1.5-point residence pup to the Eagles on Christmas Eve.
Brossman mentioned he thinks Dallas will go 7-2 SU in that stretch to complete a strong 13-4 SU.
“I’ve assumed a win at residence versus Philly and a Week 18 loss to Washington, which may very simply be reversed, however will get them to 13-4 nonetheless,” Brossman mentioned.
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Cowboys’ Tremendous Bowl odds
Dallas is a consensus +1300 in odds to win the Tremendous Bowl. That places the Cowboys behind the Buffalo Bills (+300), Philadelphia Eagles (+500), Kansas City Chiefs (+530) and San Francisco 49ers (+1200). And, relying on the place you guess, the Cowboys may additionally path the Baltimore Ravens (+1400 at FOX Wager).
At FOX Wager, the Cowboys are a bit shorter value at +1000 (bet $10 to win $100), tied for the fourth selection with the 49ers. That’s after Dallas opened Tremendous Bowl futures odds at +1800 and lengthened to +4000 after Dak Prescott suffered a thumb damage within the season opener. The ‘Boys weathered Prescott’s five-game absence, going 4-1 SU and ATS.
“After the Cowboys proved they might win with out elite QB play, they started to shorten week to week,” Brossman mentioned. “The previous 4 weeks have seen their Tremendous Bowl [odds] go from +2000 to +1800 to +1400 to their present +1000 value.”
A Dallas Tremendous Bowl win is nice behind the FOX Wager counter, with the guide seeing way more motion on the Payments, Eagles and Chiefs. And Brossman mentioned he thinks the Cowboys may make it attention-grabbing, even when the Eagles win the NFC East and Dallas is a wild card.
“I completely imagine the Cowboys could make a run to the Tremendous Bowl, no matter their playoff seed,” Brossman mentioned. “Exterior of Philadelphia, I’d put Dallas firmly within the second tier of NFC contenders, alongside San Fran and Minnesota. If Dallas is ready to signal and implement Odell Beckham Jr. into its offense, be careful for the Cowboys this postseason.”
Brossman famous Dallas is the favourite on the prop guess of OBJ’s landing spot at +200.
Cowboys counterpoint
On the flip facet, Beyers reiterated that he’s not likely bought on Dallas. Even when the Cowboys end 12-5 or higher within the common season, he’s not seeing a Prescott-led run via the postseason.
“I don’t think about Dallas to be within the higher echelon of groups, or one that’s able to profitable three or more than likely 4 video games in a row in opposition to playoff-caliber foes,” Beyers mentioned. “I’d more than likely deal them [at longer odds] than the market in odds to win the NFC and Tremendous Bowl swimming pools if I had been reserving it with my very own cash.”
That could be one thing for optimistic Cowboys bettors to bear in mind, maybe as early as this weekend at Lambeau Subject.
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He’s a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He’s primarily based in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Observe him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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